Football is often framed as a game of passion, tactics, and talent. But behind every promotion push, every relegation battle, and every transfer window lies a reality that ultimately decides a club’s future: financial health.

In Episode 3 of the Estrella Football Podcast, we sat down with Masaaki Kawasaki, who recently joined Estrella Football Group to support financial due diligence and club evaluation. Together, we unpacked one of the least glamorous, yet most critical, aspects of modern football: how clubs survive, grow, or fail based on financial decision-making.

This episode is a deep dive into why too many clubs struggle, why “rich owners” are not always the solution, and why sustainable growth starts off the pitch.

The Core Problem: Spending First, Earning Later

A recurring issue across football, especially outside the top divisions, is simple:

Clubs spend more than they earn, hoping success will fix everything later.

Player wages routinely exceed revenues. Operational losses are “covered” by hoped-for transfer income. Promotion becomes the only strategy, rather than one possible outcome.

The problem? Transfer revenue is unpredictable. Promotion is never guaranteed. Relegation is devastating.

When a club drops a division, TV income falls, ticket sales decline, sponsorship value drops, and suddenly, a fragile financial structure collapses.

As Masaaki explains, football clubs must separate:

• Controllable revenue (ticketing, sponsorship, merchandising, matchday experience)

• Uncontrollable revenue (player sales, bonuses, one-off transfers)

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A club that relies on the second category to survive is not sustainable; it’s gambling.

Why Due Diligence Matters More Than Ever

One of the most striking insights from the episode is how poorly prepared many clubs are financially, even at surprisingly high levels.

Unaudited statements. Incomplete budgets. Hidden clauses in contracts. Outstanding tax or salary payments. Loans that only surface mid-season.

These are not edge cases; they are common.

This is why Estrella’s approach to investment starts with financial due diligence:

• Audited financials from the past 2–3 seasons

• Clear breakdown of operational income vs. transfer income

• Full visibility on debts, loans, and tax obligations

• Scenario modelling: promotion, stagnation, relegation

As Masaaki puts it, financial due diligence isn’t about optimism; it’s about avoiding bankruptcy.

The Hidden Risk of “Friendly” Investors

Fans often celebrate owners who inject millions each season. But as discussed in the podcast, those injections are frequently loans, not gifts — sometimes with high interest rates.

Over time, this creates:

• Mounting debt

• Dependency on the owner

• No incentive to build real revenue streams

When the investor leaves, or simply stops funding, the club is left exposed.

This is why relying on constant capital injections is not a strategy. It’s a temporary fix that often delays deeper structural problems.

Sustainability Starts With Identity and Revenue

So what does a healthy club look like?

Not necessarily one that never loses money, but one that:

• Keeps player wages within realistic limits

• Invests in facilities, staff, and infrastructure

• Builds a recognisable brand and identity

• Attracts younger fans through culture, content, and experience

• Treats promotion as upside, not survival

At Estrella, the belief is clear: If you do things right off the pitch, performance on the pitch becomes far more achievable.

This includes modernising clubs into lifestyle and entertainment brands, something younger fans respond to far more than defensive football and empty stadiums.

Valuing a Football Club Is Not Like Valuing a Business

Another key theme was valuation.

Many clubs price themselves based on ambition rather than reality. Revenue multiples that ignore debt. Projections built on single historic transfers. Valuations are detached from operational performance.

Football clubs, especially in lower divisions, often resemble startups:

• High risk

• Limited current revenue

• Value based on potential, brand, and trajectory

That’s why Estrella looks beyond simple revenue multiples and considers:

• Brand potential

• Fan engagement

• Academy consistency

• Market positioning

• Cultural relevance

Football is not just an asset. It’s an ecosystem.

Why the Horizontal Multi-Club Model Matters

The conversation naturally returned to Estrella’s horizontal multi-club ownership model.

Unlike vertical models, where clubs act as feeders, Estrella:

• Takes significant minority stakes

• Preserves local identity and autonomy

• Operates as a partnership, not a hierarchy

• Supports clubs financially, operationally, and strategically

The goal is not control, it’s resilience.

Clubs should be proud of the players they develop, the culture they represent, and the community they serve, not defined by whom they feed.

Final Thought

Football doesn’t fail because of a lack of ambition. It fails because ambition is too often disconnected from financial reality.

Episode 3 of the Estrella Football Podcast is a reminder that sustainability is not boring, it’s essential. Without it, no vision, no brand, and no sporting success can last.

Watch the podcast on YouTube or listen to it on Spotify.

Hosted by Xander Czaikowski